Tropical Weather and US Drought Updates
Tropical Atlantic Disturbance Likely to Form: The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is tracking a tropical wave in the eastern tropical Atlantic, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.1 This system has a high chance (90%) of developing into a tropical depression by this weekend as it moves slowly westward.2 It is forecast to approach the Lesser Antilles by the middle of next week.3
Source: National Hurricane Center (NHC) – https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/xgtwo/gtwo_archive.php?basin=atl&fdays=7¤t_issuance=202509041800
Drought Worsens in the Midwest: Dry conditions across the Lower Midwest have led to a rapid expansion of drought conditions, particularly in Missouri, Kentucky, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. This has resulted in declining soil moisture, low streamflow, and negative impacts on agriculture. Low water levels on the Ohio River have also led to navigation restrictions on the Mississippi River. The drought is expected to persist through September, with new development likely in several states.
Source: National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) – https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/drought-status-update-midwest-2025-09-04
Mid-September Climate Outlook: The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has released its Week 3-4 outlook.4 It forecasts a lean towards above-average temperatures for much of the Midwest, with pockets of near-to-below-average temperatures possible in the Upper Midwest. A La Niña watch is in effect, with a weak La Niña possible by the fall and winter.5
Source: National Weather Service (NWS) – https://www.weather.gov/media/mbrfc/climate/Climate_Outlook.pdf
Disclaimer: This information was researched and curated with the assistance of AI, but reviewed and verified by a human.