Hello, weather watchers! Let’s get you up to speed on the tropical system brewing in the Gulf of Mexico, designated as Invest 93L. This system continues to be a focal point for forecasters at NOAA’s National Hurricane Center (NHC) and local National Weather Service (NWS) offices, and its impacts are increasingly likely for the central and eastern Gulf Coast.
Please remember: This is not an official forecast. Always refer to products from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and your local National Weather Service (NWS) office for the most accurate and official information for your area.
Where is Invest 93L Now?
As of Wednesday evening, July 16, 2025, surface and radar observations indicate that a broad area of low pressure, Invest 93L, is located along the coast of the Florida Panhandle near Panama City. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity, while present, remains disorganized and is primarily located south and southwest of the center.
What’s the Latest on its Track?
The system is forecast to continue moving westward across the northern portion of the Gulf of Mexico through tonight. The current projection is for Invest 93L to reach the Louisiana coast by Thursday. Its proximity to the coast as it moves westward is a key factor in its potential development.
Will it Become Tropical Storm Dexter?
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) maintains a medium chance (40%) for this system to develop into a tropical depression or even Tropical Storm Dexter within both the next 48 hours and the next 7 days.
Here’s why:
- Favorable Conditions: If the system manages to move far enough offshore into the Gulf, environmental conditions appear generally favorable for additional development. The Gulf waters are plenty warm, providing fuel for tropical systems.
- Limiting Factors: However, its very close proximity to land as it moves westward could limit its ability to fully organize and strengthen. Interaction with land can disrupt a storm’s circulation.
- Hurricane Hunters: Crucially, Hurricane Hunter aircraft are scheduled to investigate the system today. The data they collect will be vital in helping forecasters assess its structure and potential for further development.
The Main Concern: Heavy Rainfall and Flash Flooding
Regardless of whether Invest 93L earns a name, the primary and most significant threat from this system is heavy rainfall and the potential for widespread, localized flash flooding.
- Florida: Portions of Florida have already experienced heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding from this system and should anticipate continued downpours through today.
- North-Central Gulf Coast: Beginning late tonight and continuing through Friday, areas of the north-central Gulf Coast – specifically portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana – are in the bullseye for torrential rainfall.
- NWS offices in these areas are emphasizing the risk of significant rainfall. While general amounts of 2-4 inches are likely, localized totals could be much higher, with some areas potentially seeing upwards of a foot of rain.
- This poses a significant flood risk, particularly for low-lying areas and communities along the I-10 corridor, which are highly susceptible to flash flooding with such heavy rain rates.
- The NWS warns that while confidence in the heavy rain threat is high, there is “little confidence in the exact rainfall totals or where the heaviest rain will fall, and rainfall forecasts will continue to be refined over the coming days.”
What This Means for You:
If you are located anywhere from the Florida Panhandle westward to Louisiana, here’s what you should be doing:
- Monitor Official Sources: Continuously check the latest Tropical Weather Outlooks from the NHC (hurricanes.gov) and local forecasts, Flood Watches, and warnings from your specific National Weather Service office (weather.gov).
- Prepare for Flooding: If you live in a flood-prone area, have a plan in place. Never attempt to drive or walk through flooded roads – it takes very little water to sweep a vehicle away. “Turn Around, Don’t Drown!”
- Secure Outdoor Items: Even if it doesn’t become a strong tropical storm, gusty winds can accompany heavy rain, so secure any loose outdoor items.
- Review Your Emergency Kit: Ensure your emergency kit is fully stocked with water, non-perishable food, medications, and fully charged communication devices.
We will keep a close eye on Invest 93L and bring you further updates as the situation evolves. Stay safe and prepared!
AI Disclaimer: This blog post was researched and curated with AI assistance based on publicly available information from NOAA, NHC, and NWS. It is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute an official weather forecast. Always consult official sources for critical weather information.