National and Tropical Weather Update: August 7, 2025

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NOAA Reaffirms Prediction for an Above-Normal Atlantic Hurricane Season

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released an updated outlook today, stating that conditions continue to favor an above-normal 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.1 The updated prediction calls for 13-18 named storms, of which 5-9 could become hurricanes, including 2-5 major hurricanes.2 The likelihood of above-normal activity is 50%.3 The forecast is attributed to warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures and an active West African Monsoon, with ENSO-neutral conditions expected to persist.4 This outlook is consistent with NOAA’s initial forecast from May.

Tropical Storm Watch Issued for Northern Mariana Islands

The National Weather Service has issued Tropical Storm Watches for the Northern Mariana Islands of Agrihan, Pagan, and Alamagan. This is in response to Tropical Depression 16W, which is strengthening as it moves toward the islands.5

Potential Tropical Development in the Atlantic

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a tropical wave in the central tropical Atlantic.6 Environmental conditions are becoming more conducive for gradual development, and there is a medium chance for a tropical depression to form late this weekend or early next week as the system moves northwestward.7 Additionally, a weak area of low pressure off the coast of the southeastern U.S. has a low chance of slow tropical or subtropical development over the weekend, but is expected to become extratropical early next week.8

Severe Weather Threat in the Northern Plains

A significant severe weather threat, rated a level 3 out of 5, is increasing for the Northern Plains and Midwest today and tomorrow.9 Forecasters warn of damaging wind gusts in excess of 75 mph, large hail, and the possibility of a few tornadoes.10


Disclaimer: This information was researched and curated with the assistance of AI, but reviewed and verified by a human.