Here’s the outlook for tropical development in the Atlantic and Caribbean for the week of June 23, 2025, based on the latest from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and leading meteorologists:
- Central Atlantic Disturbance (AL90):
- Location: About 500 miles east of Bermuda.
- Status: The NHC is monitoring a broad area of low pressure with increasing shower and thunderstorm activity. The system has a well-defined surface circulation, with max winds just below tropical storm strength (30-35 mph)123.
- Development Chances: High—70% chance of becoming a tropical depression or tropical storm within the next 48 hours and through the next 7 days145.
- Movement: Northeastward at 5–10 mph, remaining over open water.
- Future Conditions: By Tuesday, the system will move into cooler waters and encounter strong upper-level winds, which will likely end any chance for further development423.
- Threat to Land: None. This system poses no threat to the U.S., Caribbean, or any land areas532.
- Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf Outlook:
- No Other Development Expected: The tropical Atlantic between Africa and the Caribbean, the Caribbean Sea itself, and the Gulf of Mexico are currently quiet, with little to no chance of tropical development through early July251.
- Main Development Region (MDR): While the current disturbance is a sign the Atlantic is beginning to wake up, the main development regions are still not active. Any central Atlantic development this early is unusual and may signal a basin warming up ahead of schedule5.
- Summary Table
| Area | Development Chance | Threat to Land | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Central Atlantic (AL90) | High (70%) | None | Short-lived; dissipates by mid-week |
| Caribbean | None | None | No development expected |
| Gulf of Mexico | None | None | No development expected |
- Key Points to Remember
- No threat to the U.S., Caribbean, or Gulf Coast this week.
- If the central Atlantic system develops, it could become Tropical Storm Andrea, but will be short-lived and stay over the open ocean.
- Long-range forecasts show little to no tropical activity for the Caribbean or Gulf into early July.
AI Disclaimer: This information is derived from official sources including the National Hurricane Center, NOAA, and respected weather news outlets. Always check the latest NHC updates for the most current information125.
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?text
- https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/bryan-norcross-hurricane-analysis-june-23-2025
- https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/central-atlantic-tropical-development-june-2025-hurricane-season
- https://www.click2houston.com/weather/2025/06/23/tropical-depression-or-storm-possible-this-afternoon-in-the-atlantic-basin/
- https://www.news4jax.com/weather/2025/06/23/talking-tropics-whats-brewing/
- http://link.springer.com/10.1007/978-3-319-40576-6_19
- https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/2c54f9ff680c534650f5e0a51af66da72b4e6105
- https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11452631/
- https://journals.ametsoc.org/downloadpdf/journals/mwre/148/12/mwr-d-19-0409.1.pdf
- https://www.thedailyherald.sx/regional/tropical-weather-outlook-303
- https://www.fox35orlando.com/video/1662899
- https://js.vnu.edu.vn/EES/article/view/4379
- https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/11/9/1002/pdf?version=1600691425
- http://arxiv.org/pdf/2502.00643.pdf
- https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4373142/
- https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1029/2023GL106990
- https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1029/2023GL106072
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php
- https://www.trackthetropics.com/graphical-tropical-weather-outlook/
- https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2025-06.pdf