Tropical Storm Melissa Threatens Caribbean Islands with Catastrophic Flooding and Major Hurricane Status
Tropical Storm Melissa is the dominant headline today as it slowly churns in the Caribbean Sea. The storm is forecast to undergo substantial and possibly rapid intensification, potentially becoming a hurricane on Saturday and a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher) by Sunday. Melissa’s slow movement is expected to lead to prolonged, life-threatening impacts in the region.
- Location & Movement (As of 2:00 PM EDT): 15.6°N 74.4°W, moving East-Southeast at 2 mph with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph.
- Hazards: Life-threatening and catastrophic flash flooding and landslides are expected in portions of southern Haiti and Jamaica through the weekend, with rainfall totals of 10 to 20 inches possible in some areas. Significant impacts are also likely in the Dominican Republic and Cuba next week as the storm is forecast to turn north/northeast.
- Watches/Warnings: A Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning are in effect for the southwestern peninsula of Haiti and Jamaica.
Source: National Hurricane Center – NOAA
Link: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Source: Progress report on Tropical Storm Melissa: Friday, Oct. 24 update from the NHC – The State
Link: https://www.thestate.com/news/weather/hurricane/storm-updates/article312632951.html
Severe Weather Threat for Texas and the Southern U.S.
An active weather pattern is bringing a threat of severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall across parts of the southern and central United States.
- Texas Severe Weather: Severe thunderstorms are expected across West, Central, and South-Central Texas through today, with risks including damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph, quarter-size hail (or larger), and a few tornadoes in the eastern portions of the Permian Basin. Heavy rainfall may lead to localized flash flooding.
- Source: Severe Storms, Tornado Risk, and Flooding Expected Across Texas Friday and Saturday – Texas Storm Chasers
- Link: https://texasstormchasers.com/weather/severe-storms-tornado-risk-and-flooding-expected-across-texas-friday-and-saturday/
- Weekend Severe Threat (Alabama & Mississippi): Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across the southern half of Alabama and south of Interstate 20 in Mississippi on Sunday. Damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible, tied to a warm front moving onshore from the Gulf.
- Source: Severe Weather Alert: Rain and Storms Forecast for Alabama – Alabama EMA
- Link: https://ema.alabama.gov/2025/10/24/possible-severe-weather-sunday/
- Source: Jackson, Mississippi – National Weather Service
- Link: https://www.weather.gov/jan/
NOAA Climate Prediction Center Releases Week 3-4 Outlook
The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issued its updated outlook for the Weeks 3-4 period (mid-November), highlighting a persistent La Niña base state and the influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO).
- Temperature: Above-average temperatures are favored for the northeastern U.S. and the Southwest.
- Precipitation: Enhanced chances for high precipitation “atmospheric river” events are favored for western North America, particularly the Northwest. Below-normal precipitation is favored for the Midwest, Great Lakes, and extending to the central Gulf Coast.
Source: Week 3-4 Outlook – Climate Prediction Center – NOAA
Link: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/
Disclaimer: This information was researched and curated with the assistance of AI, but reviewed and verified by a human.